The simplicity test, as explained here, is related to the makes-sense test. Examples of this abound, even in some of the most widely accepted explanatory theories. If this turns out to be true, it provides much better support for the explanation since it rules out the gravity alternative. The oracle tended to utter solemn pronouncements of a very unspecific sortfor example, I see grave misfortune in your future. It was almost inevitable that such a vague prediction would come true. Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. But Grayson believes its unlikely such factors fully explain the statistics. I think it might be haunted. Dont worry about whether the outcome has much likelihood of being true (since that has to do with the truth of premise 2, not with the logic of the argument). It makes no statement with respect to causation. Observable outcomewhat is explained in an explanatory argument; the observable outcome follows from the explanation and can in a certain way, at a certain time, and under certain conditions, be seen, heard, smelled, tasted, or touched. WebQuestion: Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Recall, from Chapter 13, that larger margins of error make it much more probable that the conclusion of an inductive generalization is true; there is a much greater chance that between 50 percent and 60 percent of the voters favor Jones than there is that exactly 55 percent of them do. \, 4,83,169,3227,-4,-\frac{8}{3},-\frac{16}{9},-\frac{32}{27}, \ldots If the Earth is surrounded by a sea of air that decreases uniformly in pressure as the altitude increases, then Periers barometer reads 30 inches at 0 feet, 28.7 inches at 1,300 feet, 28.2 inches at 1,800 feet, 27.2 inches at 2,800 feet, and 26.2 inches at 3,800 feet, and 25.2 inches at 4,800 feet. Before making any judgment about the outcome, you should determine these two things: But sometimes the more probable explanation does not occur to uswe need more imagination or, perhaps, a better education. The only difference is that Geller claims that he is not using deception. Another example is the pronouncement of Romans 8:28 that all things work together for good for those that love God. Some Christians will take any outcome at all to be, in some sense or other, good and thus to be evidence for the truth of this saying. The argument would be greatly improved if the outcome included an attempt to rule out this alternative explanation, namely, I walk around on the ground while I wear the shoes, and I float in the air when I take them off. When people insist that they have no repressed memories, then, Freud considers this to be evidence for the presence of resistance, which is itself evidence for the existence of repression. d. all of the above d. Frustration produces physical but not psychological aggression. Would it require the world to function in mysterious ways or in ways that differ dramatically from the ways that are well established by science? This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. By sheer coincidence, a few of these thousands of dreams are going to seem to come true, and these are the ones that will stick most vividly in my memory (remember the vividness shortcut from Chapter 1). Not too badly, if we compare the frequencies of each. For, as researchers have shown, we have a natural tendencytermed a confirmation biasto look for outcomes that support our preferred explanation rather than those that might falsify the alternativesto look, for example, for worshippers who escaped rather than thinking also about those who drowned. e. They were born with an aggressive urge, e. They were born with an aggressive urge, Research on game reasoning (also called bracketed morality) has shown that For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. Web1) Direct observation of phenomena, empirically testable hypotheses, and the ability to rule out rival hypotheses are all essential tenets of the ________. As the decades passed it was not forgotten, and the comet appeared on Christmas Day, 1758. Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. Webe. First part: The prior probability of the prediction is extremely lowhelped especially by the inclusion of predictions (i.e., no relevant difference in food from island to island) that succeed in falsifying alternative hypotheses (i.e., that the difference is because of difference in food). First American psychologist. Here is one of the classic exchanges:[4], Dear Abby: Im a traveling man whos on the road five days a week. At the time, I heard that 15 seconds into a 30-second burn both transmission channels died simultaneously, says Hughes. Do not worry for now whether the observable outcome Which of the following statements is true of an explanatory The most common alternative is the term theoretical argumentin which, it is said, a theory is supported by appeal to facts. a. aggressive behavior and media violence. But the editors at. Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that Suppose you see an advertisement in the business pages touting a stock fund that has topped the market for five years in a row. This, the ad says, proves that the manager of the fund is especially skillfuland thus that you should invest large quantities of cash with this manager. Observation of one or only a few instances of a phenomenon. Franklin D. Trumpy, Skeptical Inquirer (Concern yourself with the inference made by Dr. One emphasizes the power of suggestion as a psychological process; if faith can heal, despair can kill. As with the other argument forms introduced in this text, there are a variety of alternative terms for explanatory arguments, none of which seems to have taken the lead. Making any judgment about the explanation. Newtons theories, for example, while applied here to Halleys comet, actually cover the motion of all objects at all times. The Total Evidence Condition for Explanatory Arguments. Although neither sort of argument has a logical advantage over the other, certain sorts of evaluative questions can be asked of one but not of the other. The plumber couldve called the man or sent a note (enclosed, perhaps, with his bill) to straighten things out, but wrote Dear Abby where there was a good chance it wouldnt be published or the man wouldnt read it; how often does a well-intentioned person take such an ineffective action to right a wrong? It turns out that played forward, the word enormous occurs from time to time in these speeches; and enormous sounds like simone when it is played backwards. Los Angeles Times. e. all of the above. . d. Let athletes decide on what punishments fit different aggressive and violent behaviors. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. This closure did not occur during a normal period. How to Think about High Enough Prior Probability of Explanation. Thirty of the 40 who died were men and, says Grayson, most of the male deaths occurred before that of a single woman. Punishment motivates learning better than does reward.. For general explanations, a good way to check for simplicity is to ask. That a deductive failure and an inductive success can share the same form reminds us of an important lesson: deductive arguments rely only on the correct form condition, while inductive arguments also have recourse to the total evidence condition. Frustration produces increased anger or pain. For singular explanationssuch as The butler did it or This man was a Marine sergeantthe best question to ask is this: Is this sort of thing known to occur, and does it occur more frequently than do the leading alternatives? Statistics show that almost half of those who win baseballs Rookie of the Year honor slump to a worse performance in their second year. To say that an explanation or an outcome is not falsifiable is to say that any observation at all is consistent with the explanation. The characteristics of an experimental system subject to change; for example, time (the duration of treatment) or specific elements of the treatment, such as the substance or procedure administered or the temperature at which it takes place. All of these. A house fire victim, for example, is quoted in the newspaper as explaining, I kept smelling something, and then I saw the smoke. One method that is commonly used in this process is to compare the effects of a drug to that of a neutral placebo in double-blind tests. A theory predicts events in a broad, general context; a hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances. You can now see that you squandered your one opportunity. From 20 percent to 25 percent more eggs under the filters hatched successfully than those that were unshielded. , I can remember, not long ago, listening to a pal rail about a mutual friends apparently overwhelming need to flirt with every man in a given room. Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. The independent variable is manipulated to cause-effect on the dependent variable and the dependent variable is measured to examine the effect The Earth is surrounded by a sea of air that decreases uniformly in pressure as altitude increases. [2] In 1687, Isaac Newton published his monumental Principia. Your first thought would probably be that this supports the explanation that we are sometimes able to see into the future via our dreams. WebWhich of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Influenced by the confirmation bias, you proposed a number that would confirm your preferred answer. d. a and b Relatives gather close to the victim, wailing, chanting, and covering the victim with a funeral cloth. Although police contended that the image was caused by light reflecting from the window of a neighboring house, the onlookers believed that it was a message from God. Ann Arbor News. This is an example of. Also termed a theory or an explanatory hypothesis. It includes the presumption of causation. Because the explanation does no work in making the outcome probable, it should get none of the credit when the outcome is observed. Psychoanalytic theory focuses on ________ and early childhood experiences. Bandura's research showed that children who saw adult models commit violent acts repeated those acts more than children who were not exposed to such aggressive models. To simplify, Halley wondered about the following statement: Newtons account of celestial mechanics is correct and, in particular, applies to the motion of comets. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? The scolding and praise are no better than a fifth wheel in the argument, since the outcome is highly probable anyway. Introspection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. So the arguments logic must be considered weak. [Hint: First find P2P^2P2. But the theory of plate tectonics eventually provided a conceptual framework for continental drift, and the explanation no longer has an unacceptably low prior probability. Concrete, according to the campus architect, was poured whenever the schedule required and the necessary materials were available. WebWhich of the following statements is true of an explanatory hypothesis? e. none of the above, b. behavior directed toward the goal of harming a person who is motivated to avoid such treatment, Smith's research concerning violence in hockey showed that Again, the two sorts are subject to the same logical standards, though we can shape our inquiry a bit differently in each case. In others, the outcome is first observed, then the explanation is invented to account for it; although these are subject to exactly the same evaluative conditions as the first sort, we can more easily be fooled by them. a. New evidence shows that optimists live longer. Doing the math for five years, we find that the prior probability of the coincidence explanation is about .03that is, about 1 in 30 could be expected to have this kind of success just by chance. A colleague visited several Washington-area bookstores and slipped a small note into about 70 books . Ive really slimmed down. her own conscious experience. Explanationa statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. Two kinds of theories have been proposed. Personal Finance Semester 1 Test - Mrs. Ellio, John Lund, Paul S. Vickery, P. Scott Corbett, Todd Pfannestiel, Volker Janssen, The Language of Composition: Reading, Writing, Rhetoric, Lawrence Scanlon, Renee H. Shea, Robin Dissin Aufses, Eric Hinderaker, James A. Henretta, Rebecca Edwards, Robert O. Self. The conceptual framework was eventually supplied: the most important causal mechanism behind it is gravity, and, according to the eventually well-established Newtonian laws, gravitys pull on the air molecules decreases regularly as distance from Earth increases. This is solid evidence for the existence of the so-called sophomore jinx. Both the premise and the conclusion of an inductive generalization are concerned with the same subject matter. I thought somebody must be barbecuing. I knew you came from Afghanistan. A. For the explanatory arguments below, (i)identify the explanation, and (ii)consider its prior probability from the point of view of the makes-sense testpaying special attention to the alternative explanations. More precisely, the condition is that the prior probability of the observable outcome must be sufficiently low. Which of the following is not involved in critical thinking? Sample answer. C. Immediately penalize spectators for aggressive acts. 16. Which of the following would be classified as an aggressive act? No names, please. An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. No more mice. c. an interaction of situations and personal beliefs He has just come from the tropics, for his face is dark, and that is not the natural tint of his skin, for his wrists are fair. Then-clause is said to be unlikely without if-clause. . Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. correlated, but not causal. Thus, the prior probability of beating the market in a single year is roughly .50. Lucy wants to study changes in cognitive skills, moral reasoning, and social behavior across the lifespan. Prepare a cost of production report, using the average cost method. Carl Hempel, The Philosophy of Natural Science. causation. For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. Women are built for giving birth, and the long haul that involves. , Scientists at the University of Manchester have discovered a distant planet where virtually no one would have expected it to be, orbiting a pulsar star, PSR1829, which was born during a supernova. General explanations are typical of science, though are not restricted to it. After significantly departing from the mean level of competence, we would expect that the next attempt would be closer to the current mean. Which of the following choices correctly describes a double-blind test? I have had many thousands of dreamsmost of which I have immediately forgotten, in part because they have not come true. Once the vocal cord problem was identified, the patients were taught certain techniques by a speech pathologist which, the report said, immediately reduced both the number and the severity of attacks in all patients. For her part, Delynn Carter said she knows what triggered her attacks. How often do people call an expensive plumber over a faulty shower nozzle when it could be easily unscrewed and replaced with a $5 part? The comet argument can be clarified as follows: The correct form for an explanatory argument should look familiarit is also the form of the fallacy of affirming the consequent, introduced in Chapter 11. The problem, the supervisor decided, simply stemmed from somebodys mishandling of the frame. WebShort Answer. D. It excludes the presumption of C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. Alternative explanation that already exists. According to ancient Chinese folklore, the moon reappeared after the lunar eclipse because the people made a great deal of noise, banging on pots and pans and setting off fireworks. the operation of the whole mind rather than the individual parts. And my wife has never smoked anything. WebExploratory research: Definition. Please give like. Because the observable outcome rules out the leading alternative explanations, its prior probability is far lower than the anecdotal argumentand thus the argument is logically much stronger. The explanation is more probable than the leading alternatives. Teacher to student: I never received your research paper. If you evaluate the probability of the appearance of the comet but include in your background evidence the assumption that Newton is correct, then (setting aside the problem this would probably be the fallacy of begging the question) the probability of the 1758 comet would be very highit is, after all, derived from the Newtonian explanation as its outcome! There we have the marine. This observable outcome easily follows from the Newtonian explanationthus, it would provide us with an argument with true premises. Where in the tropics could an English army doctor have seen much hardship and got his arm wounded? Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. Neither of the two alternatives has been ruled out, and either is more probable than that she is one of the very few people who has perfected special coin-tossing skill. Then it is an explanatory argument. But where either species lived by itself on an island, it developed a beak in between these two extremes. Also termed the data, the prediction, or the facts. Blue jay reproduction rates were measured in both habitats before and after the treatment. Who was the first person referred to as a psychologist? Select the correctly ordered list of psychological perspectives, with the earliest perspective listed first. Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. . b. WebA hypothesis is a potential answer to the question, one that can somehow be tested. C. It's correlated, but not causal. If comets were common in December, then the premises of the argument would have still been true, but they would have given us no good reason to believe the conclusion. When established scientists reject offbeat theories, defenders of such views love to cite these cases. This is the place to ask about coincidence as an alternative explanation. Astrology is reliable. Suppose, for example, that on a camping trip to the mountains you say to your friend, This pot of water boiled quickly at this altitude; so all water boils quickly at this altitude. The premise and conclusion are both about the boiling of water at this altitude. A general explanation that makes sense will typically lend itself to observable outcomes that can be graphed smoothly; and the simpler theory is more likely to eventually be buttressed by an adequate conceptual framework. A form that cannot pull any of the load in a deductive argument may nevertheless pull a share of the load in an inductive one. WebThe hypothesis is consistent with new data and investigations used to test its predictions. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. But explanatory arguments that rely heavily on mystery or that depend on the overthrow of science cannot be considered successful until they do the hard work of filling in the blanks. Find three images of sound in the poem and three instances of silence. Singular explanationan explanation that is designed to apply only to a single thing or event. An explanatory hypothesis is a type of hypothesis which is used to test the cause and effect relationship between two or more than two variables. One good way to check for an improbable outcome is to ask this: Is this outcome so vague that it might well be true anyway? Which of the following exemplifies the empirical method? A second way of distinguishing among explanatory arguments is in their level of generality. c. undesirable d. Frustration produces physical but not psychological aggression. The notes said: If you find this note before May 1, call David Bell at the, Delynn Carter learned that the dramatic episodes of wheezing, which incapacitated her almost daily for the last eight years, were due not to asthma but to a vocal cord dysfunction that mimicked the symptoms of asthma and can be treated by speech therapy. Which of the following defines hypothesis? I offer the observable outcome that I walk around on the ground while I wear the shoes. WebSchedule 1 - Dictionary . Look for deception as an alternative explanation. Explanatory arguments are probably the most fundamental and frequently used of all arguments, both in science and in everyday life. Webe. A hypothesis attempts to explain natural phenomenon and can be tested through experimentation; a theory attempts to summarize a large expanse of natural phenomenon and has already been tested thoroughly without contradictory results. There are two types of hypothesis. So an argument of this sort is probably just a logical mistake, not an explanatory argument. Confirmation biasour natural tendency to look for outcomes that support our preferred explanation rather than those that might also falsify the alternatives. As we have seen, explanations that make good sense are those for which we have an adequate conceptual frameworkfor which we have a reasonably good account of the causal mechanisms involved. Favor outcomes for which no explanation already exists. b. Some believers in the paranormal hold that skeptical attitudes can inhibit paranormal results. A measurable entity that is created by the process being observed and whose value cannot be controlled; generally represented on the y- axis in a graph and expected to change in response to a change in the independent variable. To illustrate this bias, suppose I tell you that I have in mind a set of numbers that includes the numbers 2, 4, and 6, and I then ask you to guess what set of numbers I am thinking of. The independent variable is manipulated to cause-effect on the dependent variable and the dependent variable is measured to examine the effect In a research study, describes a manner of choosing subjects and assigning them to groups on the basis of chancethat is, randomly. If vitamin C helps prevent colds, then when I take a lot of vitamin C I get fewer colds than normal. a. with the intent to harm physically. If vitamin C helps prevent colds, then the group taking vitamin C has substantially fewer colds than the group taking the placebo. After one of our couple friends started going to a fertility clinic, they just relaxed and stopped consciously trying to conceive. Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. Which of the following refers to a broad explanation or group of explanations for some aspect of the natural world that is consistently supported by evidence over time? We make our observations when we can and we fashion our explanations when they occur to us, and the same principles of evaluation apply regardless of which comes first. A theory with great explanatory power makes few assumptions, has significant predictive power and helps to reduce uncertainty in a precise and accurate way. D. It excludes the presumption of causation. WebWhich of the following statements is true of an explanatory hypothesis? There are two types of hypothesis. Why would a scientist choose to state their hypothesis as a null hypothesis? Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. (The Vitamin C example is similar; one reason that researchers have not worked harder at collecting evidence for the theory is because it is unclear how it would work. Epistemic probability, as explained in Chapter 9, refers to the probability of the statements truth given all relevant available evidence. A theory with great explanatory power makes few assumptions, has significant predictive power and helps to reduce uncertainty in a precise and accurate way. Some writers refer to this as the surprise criterion; it tests to see if you would be surprised by the outcome were you not to assume the explanation. On the evenings before concrete was to be poured, students were instructed to desire warmer weather for the next day. The following are illustrative examples of explanatory power. The lights in this old house keep flickering. Which of the following statements best distinguishes hypotheses from theories in science? d. a and b. e. a and c. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. Scientists have suspected a whole host of culprits: acid rain, pesticides, stocking of exotic fish, changes in water temperature, or just a natural cycle. But the second letter, using the same observable outcome, offers an alternative explanationnamely, that a plumber visited, left the pipe, then surreptitiously retrieved it. 1. In another example, continental drift initially was reasonably rejected as the explanation for the striking biological and geological similarities between continents that are widely separated by oceans because there was no known mechanism for the drift. When an explanation already exists, the arguer is free to respond in, for example, the case of the student pilots performance, OK, but this outcome is explained both by the efficacy of punishment and by the normal return to the current mean after an aberrant performance. But now it violates the second part of the total evidence condition as well! e. b and c, a. athletes view aggressive acts that would be judged inappropriate in society in general as more appropriate in the sport environment, The research examining the relationship between aggression and performance supports which conclusion?

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